A decade: That’s the amount of time that passes before American presidents fade into obscurity, give or take a couple years.
As such, our story begins in 2015: The Supreme Court had just made same-sex marriage legal; FIFA was in the midst of a corruption scandal; and Hillary Clinton was catching heat for her emails. Then, in June, the infamous escalator ride down to Donald Trump’s announcement that he was running for the Republican nomination in the 2016 presidential elections.
This seemingly innocuous moment would set off a chain of events that would ultimately lead us to where we are now.
But there is a curious thing that happens after any person has served two terms in the Oval Office: Once the terms are over, and the limelight of being POTUS fades away, they all inevitably fade into obscurity—and the party they once led and molded moves on.
This is the inescapable fate that also awaits Donald Trump.
It’s Tough to be ‘Kingmaker’
Many people once thought that Donald Trump would become the Republican party’s ‘kingmaker’. Wherever Donald Trump threw his weight behind a candidate, the idea went, that candidate would clobber their competitor. And for a little while, this may have seemed true.
But a short stroll down recent history paints a different picture.
From 2000-2008, George Bush was everywhere. Not only would America suffer an unprecedented attack on September 11th during his first term that would lead to the Iraq war and the long and tumultuous road to apprehending Osama Bin Laden, Bush also pushed and molded the Republican party in the same ways that Trump did. Granted Bush had a little more decorum at least.
In the end, the most enduring thing about the George Bush presidency was that time he got a shoe thrown at him.
And in the end, once he had served his two terms, the limelight ultimately faded. For there was nothing left for Bush to accomplish, he had climbed to the highest office in the land and had his time. Nowadays, you barely even hear anything about the guy despite being a living president.
On the opposite end of that spectrum is Barrack Obama, who like Bush served his two terms, before also ultimately succumbing to the same fate of obscurity. From 2008-2016, Obama was practically the face of the Democratic party; he shaped it and molded it just like Trump is doing to the Republican party now.
And just like Bush did before him, Obama also had his time, and then the limelight of POTUS quickly faded. Sure, nowadays you can find him stumping from time-to-time, and he is no doubt still an excellent public speaker, but his name and presence simply do not command the same attention they did before. That is to say that his influence on the Democratic party faded and he was suddenly no longer able to shape and mold its direction.
The Sun is Setting
As of today, Donald Trump still has some time left on his decade in the POTUS limelight. Yes, he is just starting out his second term, but the telltale signs that his time as the Republican frontrunner is nigh are already there.
Recent polls have found that a lot of Trump’s policies are proving to be deeply unpopular and his approval rating is already underwater—and that’s before you even consider that the Atlanta Fed reported today that GDP for the first quarter of 2025 (Jan-March) is on track to go negative (-1.5%) and economists the world over are sounding the alarm about a deep American recession on the horizon.
For a president that was already highly divisive, tanking the economy while simultaneously making enemies of our oldest and most trusted allies will not sit well, especially when your entire premise for going back to Washington was the “vibes” on the economy and the price of consumer goods and services like groceries and car insurance.
The truth is that Donald Trump is now a highly unpopular lame duck president with an expiration date on his political career.
If historical norms hold true, then that expiration date is set for 2026—because if the Democrats claim control of either chamber of Congress, then Trump’s entire agenda comes screeching to a halt and the reality sets in that his time in politics and the limelight of being POTUS are coming to a close.
And as his influence fades away, so too will Donald Trump, doomed to enter the same fate that befalls every President of the United States.
But the really interesting part comes after: What becomes of a Republican party that became so invested in a single person? Once those disparate groups of people that MAGA united disperse, and being Trump supporters is no longer a unifying feature, will they continue to show up at the ballot box? Is the Republican party destined for multiple election cycles of in-fighting?
We’ll all find out soon enough.